Best E-mini Strategy: Trend-Following for ES Futures
When it comes to trading the E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES), one of the most reliable and beginner-friendly approaches is trend-following. This strategy aligns your trades with the prevailing market direction, allowing you to ride momentum rather than fight it.
In this post, you’ll learn how to identify trends in the ES market, apply simple tools like moving averages, and execute high-probability entries with clear risk control.
Why Trend-Following Works in ES Futures
ES futures offer:
- Strong intraday trends during key market sessions
- High liquidity, reducing slippage and noise
- Volatility around macro events, ideal for breakout continuation setups
Trend-following works best when the market is not range-bound—typically after a news event, during high-volume hours, or when breaking key levels.
Setup: Trend-Following with EMA and Structure
Tools Needed:
- 20 EMA (short-term trend)
- 50 EMA (medium-term trend)
- Volume bars
- Optional: RSI or MACD for momentum confirmation
Timeframes:
- 15-minute for intraday trading
- 1-hour or 4-hour for swing setups
Entry Conditions
Long Setup:
- 20 EMA is above the 50 EMA
- Price is making higher highs and higher lows
- Pullback to the 20 or 50 EMA
- Bullish confirmation candle (e.g., engulfing or hammer)
- Volume increases on bounce
Short Setup:
- 20 EMA is below 50 EMA
- Price forms lower highs and lower lows
- Pullback into EMA zone
- Bearish confirmation candle + high volume
Example Trade Plan
- Instrument: ES (E-mini S&P 500 Futures)
- Chart: 15-minute
- Entry: Buy on bullish candle off 20 EMA in an uptrend
- Stop-Loss: 6–8 points below entry (adjusted for volatility)
- Target: 2:1 risk/reward (e.g., 12–16 points profit)
Tip: Use ATR (Average True Range) to gauge ideal stop distance during volatile sessions.
Risk Management
- Risk no more than 1% of your capital per trade
- Trade only during high-liquidity periods (e.g., 9:30–11:30 AM ET)
- Avoid trading during major economic announcements unless experienced
Backtesting Tip
Before going live:
- Test this trend-following method on historical ES data
- Identify win/loss patterns and tweak stop/target size
- Track your success rate and average R-multiple per trade
FAQs
Is trend-following better than reversal trading in ES?
Yes, especially for beginners. It’s easier to follow momentum than pick tops/bottoms.
Does this work during overnight sessions?
Less effectively. Trend-following shines during the U.S. session when volume and direction are clearer.
Can I use this strategy with Micro E-minis?
Absolutely. Micro ES contracts (MES) are great for practice with smaller risk.
What’s the best time to apply this strategy?
Between 9:30 AM and 12:00 PM ET when trends tend to form after the U.S. market open.
Can I automate this strategy?
Yes. Once tested manually, many platforms (like NinjaTrader or TradeStation) support automation.
